“Remember this: Gasoline, fuel, oil, natural gas went up to a level that it was impossible. … That’s what caused inflation, and we’re going to bring it down because we’re going to go drill, baby, drill,” 2024 Presidential candidate Donald Trump stated at a campaign rally in Las Vegas, Nevada on Jan. 29.
Climate change has been a growing controversy between the Democratic and Republican parties. Some hope to crack down on unsustainable energy practices to stop climate change from degrading Earth’s plant and animal species, while others believe it is crucial to support the oil and gas industries due to energy independence and job creation. Voters’ views on climate change will help decide the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, specially given that climate change has significantly intensified in recent years. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Serive — a European Union Earth Observation Program — 2023 was the warmest year in global records going back to 1850. Moreover, according to 2023 research conducted by the World Health Organization, 3.6 billion people already live in areas highly susceptible to climate change. As Gunn students approach voting age, their understanding of current debates will help them establish their opinions on the matter.
Concern about climate change has increased rapidly for decades. In 1970, former U.S. Senator Gaylord Nelson created Earth Day to raise awareness about environmental issues. In 1988, ozone-layer depletion became an increasingly prominent issue in politics. The ozone layer protects the Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation, and its depletion contributes significantly to global warming. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency states that currently, the rate of warming is more than three times as fast as it was in 1980.
Beyond the ozone layer, Earth’s average temperatures are increasing, sea levels are rising, glaciers and ice sheets are melting and severe weather is becoming more frequent, according to the Nature Conservancy, a global environmental nonprofit. Indeed, scientists estimate that the “safe threshold” for global warming could be passed in less than a decade. Nevertheless, Democratic and Republican views differ significantly when it comes to climate change. A 2022 U.S. survey conducted by the Pew Research Center on climate change showed that amongst the respondents, 78% of self-identified Democrats and 23% of self-identified Republicans view climate change as a major threat to the nation’s well-being.
Many Democrats believe that tackling climate change is important because of the threat it poses to humanity. During his time in office, President Joe Biden — who is running for reelection this year — passed the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, the largest piece of federal legislation to address climate change thus far. Aiming to reduce carbon pollution, this act includes $8.8 billion in subsidies for home energy efficiency and electrification projects, which are estimated to save American homeowners up to $1 billion per year.
On the other hand, many Republicans don’t see a strong connection between human activity and climate change. In 2017, former President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement, which slowed international efforts to reduce emissions. Additionally, in 2020, Trump finalized plans that allowed mining and drilling in nearly 1 million acres of land in Utah, which were formerly off-limits. More recently, ahead of the Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses, Trump supporters showed their enthusiasm for oil and gas drilling. Along with former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Trump promised surging levels of oil and gas drilling and the removal of President Biden’s climate change policies.
These differences could prove significant in November. According to 2024 research conducted by Matthew Burgess, an associate professor at Brooklyn College, views on climate change played a significant role in whom people voted for in 2020. Burgess and his team of researchers from Vanderbilt University and the University of California, Santa Barbara used logistic regression, a machine learning model and a simulation of the Electoral College, adjusting the importance of climate change in their study. They concluded that Republicans could have gained at least a 3% swing in the popular vote if climate change was not a top priority for voters, which would have almost guaranteed them the White House in 2020. Burgess’ team also found that one-quarter of Republicans who find climate change to be an important issue voted for Biden in the 2020 election.
In 2023, the Pew Research Center found that around three-fourths of Democrats approve of Biden’s actions against climate change. A large portion of the electorate views climate change as an important issue and want to see a future where it is taken into account. These beliefs will lead people to vote for the candidate that supports their views — most likely Biden.
Of course, this doesn’t mean that Biden’s policies have universal support. Some climate advocates feel that he isn’t meeting expectations. On Sept. 18, 2023, climate activists gathered in Midtown Manhattan to protest Biden’s insufficient progress in addressing climate change. Young voters in particular used the protest to show frustration with the slow pace of political action on green issues.
The ongoing debate surrounding climate change extends beyond presidential debates — it is something that will be discussed among students, clubs, families and communities. As Gunn students observe the effects of climate change around them, they should take care to understand candidates’ positions on the issue before deciding who they support.
